Change Log
More for myself than anyone else, I want to track the changes and areas that I’m working on. Changes and intentions will be reflected in the linked page.
Index
> What are the Tectonic Forces that shape our world?
> How do we continue to Grow in a finite world?
> What are the Linear and the Cyclic elements of History?
>How do we deal with Crisis?
> What do you believe the Future will be?
> What is your Plan to deal with that future?
Objective
The goal of this course/book is to explore the major forces that have shaped our society to date so that we can understand what impact the existing forces will have, take a look at cyclical and linear patterns in history and finally explore some of the newly emerging forces that will help to reshape our world. By understanding these present and future tectonic forces upon which our continents of daily life rest as well as the way in which we have dealt with the world around us, we can project what our futures may look like and then develop a plan to deal with those possibilities.
While I firmly believe in the old saying “We plan and God laughs”, which makes this a ridiculous project. The only thing more ridiculous than creating this project is would be to not try.
Summary
Like many people, I operate under an unconscious assumption that tomorrow will be mostly like today only a little better. Perhaps it’s my optimistic nature, but I didn’t give much thought to any significant disruption to our lifestyle. After all, we continue to make progress. We continue to grow and develop. If fact, this isn’t a bad assumption during good times. However, from time to time, there are significant disruptions that cause a massive change to the way we live. Some of these can be rather sudden and can be very catasrophic.
I want my children and grandchildren to be prepared for the future that they are going to face. In order to do that, the more that we know about the likely path or more aptly, the likely paths that we may tred over the coming years, the better prepared we can be. Many books look forward towards the future. We also have a large number of books that study history. In this book/course we’re going to try both forward to attempt to recognize the changes that will transform our lives while at the same time, looking at the attributes of history that we believe will be relevant to the shape of tomorrow.
There is little value to analysis without action. If you calculate that a piano falling from a tall building is going to fall on your location, it doesn’t do you much good unless you move. Correspondingly, we are going to spend a good deal of time exploring where we think our culture, society, economy and nation will go, but we will also develop plans for what we plan to do about it.
Operating Assumptions
Personal responsibility - While it will be nice if society can provide for our needs, I don’t know of any case where that has been a sustainable proposition. The assumption that we will use in this book/course is that each of us is reasonable to some large degree for our own well-being. We will discuss this further in the Role of Government.
Texts
I want to keep the required reading down to four books if that is possible. I will also recommend a number of other books that will help
Required Reading
Collapse - Jared Diamond
Limits to Growth - Meadows, Sanders, Meadows
The Fourth Turning - Strauss & Howe
Recommended
Colossus - Niall Ferguson
The Collapse of Complex Societies - Joseph Tainter
The Next 100 Years - George Friedman
The Upside of Down - Thomas Homer-Dixon